Benjamin Franklin is credit with pros and cons approach . An approach that we use most of the time.. the story of Joseph Priestley proved this to be wrong. Joseph Priestley is the scientist who discovered oxygen. He is also credited with invention of "soda water". He asked Frankin for advise and didn't follow it . Instead he used an approach we all should use - according to the book Decisive. What was the approach - it is W in WRAP below.
We all make decisions . So many of them in a single day.
Some are good.
Some are bad.
Most are neutral - your decision either way wouldn't have mattered - sad but true.
From the book Decisive here are some interesting observations
Whenever you get a question - Should I do this or that? The answer must be This and That. Try it.
The Heath brothers who wrote this book have encoded their process into a mnemonic WRAP
W- Widen your options
R- Reality Test your options
A - Attain distance
P - Prepare to be wrong
W- Widen your options
We all make decisions . So many of them in a single day.
Some are good.
Some are bad.
Most are neutral - your decision either way wouldn't have mattered - sad but true.
From the book Decisive here are some interesting observations
Whenever you get a question - Should I do this or that? The answer must be This and That. Try it.
The Heath brothers who wrote this book have encoded their process into a mnemonic WRAP
W- Widen your options
R- Reality Test your options
A - Attain distance
P - Prepare to be wrong
W- Widen your options
- Multi Tracking - Should we go for Birthday party or dinner.. it can be party and dinner.
- Find some one who solved your problem
- Look local - bright spots . If your car is always clean and not your closet check why it works for one and not the other
- Look Regional best practises - How does your school keep kids healthy? This should give you an idea how you can be healthy
- Distant - Look into another field- What have they done right? If netflix has recommendations based on customer preference based engine how can you provide a variety of food to your kid( don't!..this is just a useless analogy)
R- Reality Test your options
This is where Daniel Kahneman comes into picture. He won Noble price for economics (no big deal) and he is a psychologist (big deal to prove psychology triumphs economics)
He has a concept about confirmation bias. I will elaborate on these biases later and for now do understand that once you start seeking information you will find information to support your theory.
1. When you are about to buy something from another craigslist seller - ask disconfirming question like "Does this ipod have a problem"
2. Zoom out - When you talk to expert don't ask open ended or closed questions . Ask them very specific questions only about past or present . Don't ask them to predict future. Ask them to provide information
about past and present. Never about future. Remember - expert advise is only useful to identify basis. If you want to make a move to texas ask some one anyone who moved to texas (in the book they say south carolina - I ask why not Texas - I moved here so should you!).
3. When you start a project (this is from the book - The Enchantment) - do premortem. Ask people and your friends why your project will fail. Have they done it earlier? Ask team members why this project will fail before it starts. This beats the confirmation bias.
4. Do ooch - Real life test. Experiment. Your child wants to watch tv and then do homework. Try for 3 days. Let her know that she is in charge and for 3 days she can watch tv first and then do homework and if it fails she should own and understand that the experiment failed and we can try it in another 6 months . For now, parents rule (at least for 6 months)
3. Attain Distance
1.What will I ask my friend to do in this situation?
2. What will my successor do? - If i am not the women in charge what would the next woman/man in charge do if and when I leave?
3.Use 10/10/10(another book) and referenced in this book - what does this decision mean to me 10minutes from now,10months from now and 10 years from now.
4.Prepare to be wrong
we are always almost confident about the future. we know everything - atleast so we think. We should prepare to be wrong and be prepared for victory parade too.
Setup trap wires. Have a checklist (another book - about checklist that you must read - The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right) .
Do you know what will happen if you are wrong?
Always ask this question when you have multiple options in life or in a meetings - How can we prove this is the best option and ask everyone to work on the option and not on advising people why it is not the right one.
It is worth repeating - ask your spouse or child or team mate - if we have few options take each option and get opinion on that option (not negative but positive) and find what will it take to make sure this is the best option.
Use what you learn and decide well .
Happy new year
Sivakumar Manikanteswaran
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