Friday, September 12, 2014

Blog Post #90 - Why are we seeing more chevy cars on the roads now?




The blog title has nothing to do with GM or Toyota. If you want to learn about cars quit this post now! This is about a book!

Think Like a Freak from Steven Levitt, a University of Chicago economist, and journalist Stephen Dubner I want to discuss about the great stuff I learnt from them .

I loved freakonomics and superfrekonimics from these brilliant authors. Freakonimics is also available in neflix to watch for those non book readers and people who have no time (isn't that all of us? - what is time anyway and why is it always in short supply these days)!

The book starts off with something amazing..
 In world cup - if you were asked to kick the penalty kick that will decide the fate of your nation 

Will you kick in the center -Where there is more probability to win ?

or 

On the side where there is statistically less probability to win?  

(closer to the goal post where it looks like a cool shot for you and the goal keeper to kick/catch!)

To answer, you don't need to understand soccer but  about the people.

People want to convince you that they tried along with their best effort not just use statistics and kick in center - if caught it will look like you didn't try hard!
Here are some key points from the book.

1. Be willing to say, “I don’t know.” 

You think you are good at saying I don't know? Let's find out soon . "The cost of saying “I don’t know” is higher than the cost of simply being wrong. None of us want to appear foolish or overmatched, so we often place the importance of protecting our own reputation over the collective good." - from the bn link 

What is knowing? 

Once you know that you -  will know what it means to say "I don't know". 

From the book the authors quote a study in England with 5 year old kids.. let's check how good you are?


I am going to tell you a story.
A little girl named Mary goes to the beach with her mother and brother.
They drive there in a red car.
At the beach.
They swim.
Eat some ice cream.
Play in the sand.
And have some sandwiches for lunch. So that’s the end of the short story.


So now I’m going to ask you the questions.

Warning - If you want to check your facebook or email or twitter - close this post and come back later. This is not a simple exercise and this will help you know more about you than what you do about yourself now. If you are tired see you tomorrow!

If you got past all the warnings answer the questions

---scroll down----

























Did they have fish and chips for lunch?
Did they listen to music in the car?
What color was the car?
Did they drink lemonade with their lunch?
What flavor ice cream did Mary have?


















Did you know which questions had the answer "I don't know" ? 
-----scroll down----




















Did they listen to music in the car?
Did they drink lemonade with their lunch?
What flavor ice cream did Mary have?

If you had answer one of these 3 questions - next time remember that there is an  option - I don't know! ( I answered all 3- lot of work pending for me!)

Do you know how to peel a banana?  If you can answer yes to this question and see this video Link then you will know how to peel a banana.

Unless you acknowledge you don't know you can't learn.


2. Ignore boundaries.

"Who is Bill Gates?" When I asked my son Arnav he didn't  hesitate and answered the guy who lost to Magnus Carlson

Watch the game here 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84NwnSltHFo

When all you know is chess then Bill Gates looks like a loser to Magnus Carlson!!!  
Kids are amazing and my  kids are fascinating (so are yours!).

Instead of asking a question "what is wrong with the educational system" you might ask "how can i make educational system work for my kid!" The authors discuss about the guy who ate too many hot dogs.. ignoring what was previously limit and doubled the number from the previous world record by not asking the question - "How can I eat more hot dogs?" to "How can I make these hot dogs more 'eatable'? " (Check the book or google to find how to eat 50+ hot dogs( a year's supply for most carnivores ) in under 12 minutes !

3. Think like a child. 
I took a lot of time to explain about the car industry the other day- counties  in which cars in made all the way to Tesla electric cars. While we have the Hyundai to the Toyota Arush (my little one) loves Chevy and BMW.
Arnav my elder son started teaching Arush how to locate these Chevy cars which comes in all shapes and sizes and eventually asked me...

Daddy - Why are we seeing more chevy cars on the roads now?
Once you who what you are looking for , you find it everywhere! 


When I asked the question - what language do they speak in USA Arnav mentioned

In America people speaks all languages, in India they speak all languages and in China they speak all languages.  

When do we say people speak German in Germany when we know some people in Germany discussing in Italian while others in Telugu. 

I think the question needs to be the "What is the official language of USA or not what language do they in USA?" . 


Children learn new stuff because they are ready to ask naive questions. Do you catch yourself asking the question "This might be a stupid question ... and " . ? Most people think asking questions are stupid and asking stupid questions make them stupider??!!! Do you?

4. Incentivize people, but don’t manipulate them. - Next post
The story is always about how a British General in India offered bounty(money) for each cobra skin brought to him and magically the population of cobras increased in India. People started breeding cobras and killing them. Brought them to the king (aka British General in India - who thought they were kings) and god money from Saheb!


The wrong incentive always pushes people to do stuff that you may not want . Think about it before you offer any incentive to people or kids .


5. Get your garden to weed itself. - Next post

You must read this pdf to know the answer to - why Nigerian e-mail scammers prominently say they are from Nigeria ?

From wikipedia quoting bible - Link

The story is recounted in Bible - Two young women who lived in the same house and who both had an infant son came to Solomon for a judgment. One of the women claimed that the other, after accidentally smothering her own son while sleeping, had exchanged the two children to make it appear that the living child was hers. The other woman denied this and so both women claimed to be the mother of the living son and said that the dead boy belonged to the other.
After some deliberation, King Solomon called for a sword to be brought before him. He declared that there was only one fair solution: the live son must be split in two, each woman receiving half of the child. Upon hearing this terrible verdict, the boy's true mother cried out, "Oh Lord, give the baby to her, just don't kill him!" The liar, in her bitter jealousy, exclaimed, "It shall be neither mine nor yours—divide it!"
The king declared the first mother as the true mother, as a true, loving mother would rather surrender her baby to another than hurt him, and gave her the baby. King Solomon's judgment became known throughout all of Israel and was considered an example of profound wisdom.

6. When facing a tough decision, flip a coin. - Next post
No one knows the future. Experts who claim to know a lot are wrong 40% of the time. More times than even flipping a coin  - which is closer to 50% for larger number (not for all numbers remember that!)

Now when you want to quit anything you have 3 problems that you are trying to address

1. If you quit people and animals (the whole world) will think you  are a failure. 
2. You already invested time in the career,money in the project et all - sunk cost.
3. Should you quit and do that? or many other things which are other opportunities to consider - opportunity cost.


Here is an example

Let's say you are painting your home and you are not good at that(what are you good at?). Your room is painted half way and it looks ugly!

1. If you quit painting the room you may be perceived(?!) as a bad painter (which you are !)
2. You spend 3 hours in it and $120 and trips to homedepot(or lowes!) and think this can be completed in next 2 hours.
3. Should you hire a painter or ask a friend ?What will you do with that time you get? - opportunity cost.


Now you know how to think like a 'Freak'


Keep Learning 
Sivakumar Manikanteswaran


No comments:

Post a Comment