Back to probability.
Knowledge is knowing and knowing that you have the knowledge.
(Confusion is a fashion)
In Probability I ( and you too) were taught that we should toss a coin, skip to dice and finally to cards. We didn't know what to roll or toss or pull for 3 or 4 or 5 and any other numbers.
Even with this limited knowledge we struggle with probability.
Coin toss problem has a sample space of HH, HT,TH and TT .
A 2 baby problem might have a similar sample space of BB,BG,GB,GG ( G = Girl , B = ? You guessed it. Intelligent fellow..keep up the good work)
Coin toss and Baby problem are called isomorphic. Now don't toss the baby to get the coin out.
Now if have 2 kids and one of them is named Arnav then the problem doesnt have the same sample space and one of the kids name has been fixed. still following?
The question - if i toss a coin 49 times and got 49 heads what do you think will happen when I toss the coin again.
Did you say head ? - Why? ( Because the coin looks skewed towards head)
Did you say tail ? - Why? ( Because the coin looks to be due for tail.. after 49 heads it is time for tail)
Did you say 50/50 - Why? ( The other events are independent.This is a new toss so the probability of head/tail is the same.)
Now that you know the knowledge you acquired is useless in probability let me pose the life question - If I was mean to you 49 times the next time I meet with you will I be ??? ( you guessed it right. I will still be nice but you never know)
Knowledge is knowing and knowing that you have the knowledge.
(Confusion is a fashion)
In Probability I ( and you too) were taught that we should toss a coin, skip to dice and finally to cards. We didn't know what to roll or toss or pull for 3 or 4 or 5 and any other numbers.
Even with this limited knowledge we struggle with probability.
Coin toss problem has a sample space of HH, HT,TH and TT .
A 2 baby problem might have a similar sample space of BB,BG,GB,GG ( G = Girl , B = ? You guessed it. Intelligent fellow..keep up the good work)
Coin toss and Baby problem are called isomorphic. Now don't toss the baby to get the coin out.
Now if have 2 kids and one of them is named Arnav then the problem doesnt have the same sample space and one of the kids name has been fixed. still following?
The question - if i toss a coin 49 times and got 49 heads what do you think will happen when I toss the coin again.
Did you say head ? - Why? ( Because the coin looks skewed towards head)
Did you say tail ? - Why? ( Because the coin looks to be due for tail.. after 49 heads it is time for tail)
Did you say 50/50 - Why? ( The other events are independent.This is a new toss so the probability of head/tail is the same.)
Now that you know the knowledge you acquired is useless in probability let me pose the life question - If I was mean to you 49 times the next time I meet with you will I be ??? ( you guessed it right. I will still be nice but you never know)
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